The July labor data released last Friday showed that Nonfarm Payrolls actually fell by 23,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%. The data reinforces signs that the labor market is beginning to lose momentum, but with inflation still above target, the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains unclear.
Market Conditions: Bitcoin Retests US$65,000
Bitcoin enters this week in a stronger position than it did at the beginning of August. Based on market data checked on Monday morning, August 10, 2026, BTC is trading around US$64,944, with an intraday range of approximately US$64,696–US$65,348.
Historical data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin closed at around US$63,473 on August 3, then rose gradually to approximately US$64,856 by August 9. This means BTC has successfully maintained its recovery after previously dipping below US$63,000 in late July and early August.
One of the supporting factors comes from United States spot Bitcoin ETFs. During August 3–7, the ETFs recorded five consecutive sessions of inflows:
- August 3: US$170.1 million
- August 4: US$211.5 million
- August 5: US$244.4 million
- August 6: US$137.6 million
- August 7: US$101.7 million
The total inflow over those five sessions reached approximately US$865.3 millionBlackRock's IBIT was the largest contributor during those sessions.
Ethereum ETFs also showed improvement. After an outflow of US$11.9 million on August 3, ETH ETFs recorded inflows for the next four sessions, generating a net inflow of approximately US$243.7 million from August 3–7.
The combination of ETF inflows and weaker labor data helped improve market sentiment. However, Bitcoin's ability to surpass US$65,000 now heavily depends on inflation data due mid-week.
Monitor Bitcoin prices in real-time on Mobee.
Event #1: US CPI Is the Biggest Catalyst This Week
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2026 will be released on Wednesday, August 12, at 8:30 AM ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed the schedule.
The latest CPI data provided a complex picture. In June, headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, but was still up 3.5% year-over-year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged month-over-month. The decline in the headline figure was primarily driven by energy, which fell 5.7%.
For the July data, the consensus among economists cited by Barron's is around 3.4% year-over-year. This means inflation is expected to cool slightly but remains well above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%.
If CPI Is Lower Than Expected
Inflation falling faster than expected could reduce pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.
The US dollar and bond yields could weaken, while risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum may receive a boost.
In that scenario, Bitcoin has the potential to retest US$65,300–US$66,000.
If CPI Meets Expectations
Data that aligns with consensus will likely keep the market in consolidation mode.
Investors will then await PPI and retail sales data to get a more complete picture of price pressures and consumer strength.
If CPI Is Higher
A resurgence in inflation could reinforce concerns that the Fed may need to maintain a tight monetary policy or even raise interest rates again.
This scenario could potentially support the dollar and bond yields while putting pressure on Bitcoin.
Event #2: PPI Tests Whether Inflationary Pressures Will Return
A day after the CPI, the market will receive the Producer Price Index or July PPI on Thursday, August 13 at 8:30 AM ET or around 8:30 PM WIB.
The PPI reflects changes in prices received by producers and can provide clues regarding cost pressures before they reach consumers.
June data showed final demand PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month, but remained 5.5% higher compared to the previous year. Final goods prices fell 1.4%, primarily due to a 6.4% drop in energy, while service prices increased by 0.2%.
Because annual producer inflation remains high, the market will be watching to see if the June decline continues or is merely temporary.
If the CPI is relatively low but the PPI surges again, Bitcoin's reaction may be more limited as the market still perceives the risk of inflationary pressure at the producer level.
Conversely, if both CPI and PPI soften, it could reinforce the narrative that price pressures are beginning to come under control.
Event #3: Retail Sales Measure US Consumer Strength
The next macro agenda is Advance Retail Sales for July, scheduled for release by the Census Bureau on Friday, August 14 at 8:30 AM ET or around 8:30 PM WIB.
June retail sales rose by approximately 0.2% compared to the previous month, while the consensus cited by Barron's also expects an increase of around 0.2% for July.
This data is important because the market is currently facing two opposing risks.
Retail sales that are too strong could indicate that the economy is still hot enough that the Fed has little reason to loosen policy.
However, a sharp drop in retail sales is not necessarily positive either, as it could raise concerns that a weakening labor market is beginning to weigh on consumption.
For Bitcoin, a relatively constructive scenario is for consumption to slow moderately without showing signs of a sharp economic contraction.
Event #4: AI Earnings Re-test Risk-On Sentiment
The tech stock market could also influence risk-asset sentiment throughout this week.
Several companies that have confirmed their financial reports are:
CoreWeave — August 11
CoreWeave will report its second-quarter results on August 11. As an AI-focused cloud infrastructure provider, its results and outlook on computing expenditure could serve as an indicator of demand for AI infrastructure.
Super Micro Computer — August 11
Supermicro will report its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results on the same day. The company has significant exposure to AI servers, cloud, and high-performance computing.
Cisco — August 12
Cisco is scheduled to release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results after the US market closes on August 12. In the previous quarter, Cisco recorded strong growth in networking orders and AI infrastructure demand from hyperscalers.
Applied Materials — August 13
Applied Materials will announce its third-quarter results on August 13. As a major supplier of semiconductor production equipment, the report may provide further insight into chip industry spending trends and AI.
Tech company earnings do not directly determine Bitcoin's fundamentals. However, strong reports can support the Nasdaq and risk-on sentiment, while a disappointing AI outlook could increase volatility in tech stocks and spill over into the crypto market.
CLARITY Act No Longer a Catalyst This Week
There has been a major change compared to last week's article.
The CLARITY Act failed to reach a vote before the Senate entered recess. The Senate has concluded its regular session and is scheduled to return on September 14, 2026, although there will be several pro forma sessions during the recess.
More importantly, the current Senate schedule indicates that the cloture on the motion to proceed for H.R. 3633, Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is scheduled to become effective on September 15, 2026.
This means the week of August 10–14 effectively has no CLARITY Act voting catalysts.
In the short term, market attention regarding regulation will likely shift toward developments from regulators and political commentary, while major legislative catalysts move to September.
Bitcoin ETFs Become Key Indicator After US$865 Million Inflow
Beyond the CPI, one of the most important data points to monitor throughout the week is whether Bitcoin ETFs can maintain their inflow trend.
The last five trading sessions all ended positively with a total of approximately US$865.3 million. However, the daily inflow value decreased from US$244.4 million on August 5 to US$137.6 million on August 6 and US$101.7 million on August 7.
This means there are two things to watch.
If inflows increase again when Bitcoin breaks through US$65,000, it could provide additional support for a breakout.
Conversely, a sudden shift to outflows after several positive sessions could weaken momentum, especially if it coincides with a higher-than-expected CPI.
ETF flows must still be read in conjunction with spot volume, derivatives, leverage liquidations, Treasury yields, and the value of the US dollar. Inflows do not guarantee that Bitcoin prices will rise immediately.
The Fed Now Faces Conflicting Economic Signals
At the July 29 meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote.
Three FOMC members voted for a 25 basis point hike, while the Fed's official statement reiterated that inflation remains above the 2% target.
However, the labor report released after that meeting provided new signals.
Nonfarm payrolls for July fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate is at 4.1%.
In other words, the Fed is now facing a combination of persistently high inflation and a weakening labor market.
This situation makes this week's CPI and PPI reports more critical than usual. A decline in inflation could provide more room for looser policy, whereas high inflation might keep the Fed focused on price stability even as the labor market softens.
Three Bitcoin Scenarios for This Week
The following probabilities are editorial estimates based on Bitcoin's position at the start of the week, ETF data, and the macro agenda for August 10–14. These figures are not statistical probabilities or guarantees of price movement.
Scenario 1 — Bullish
Indicative probability: 35%
CPI and PPI show lower inflationary pressure, retail sales slow down without a sharp decline, tech stocks respond positively to earnings, and Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows.
Bitcoin needs to break through US$65,000–US$65,350, then hold above US$66,000 to confirm the breakout.
Target range: US$66,000–US$68,000.
Scenario 2 — Sideways
Indicative probability: 40%
CPI comes in near consensus, PPI and retail sales produce mixed signals, while ETFs remain positive but without acceleration.
Bitcoin may continue to trade within the range that has dominated the last few days.
Target range: US$63,500–US$66,000.
Scenario 3 — Bearish
Indicative probability: 25%
CPI or PPI comes in hotter than expected, causing the market to ramp up expectations for tighter monetary policy again.
Pressure could intensify if ETFs shift to outflows or tech stocks undergo a correction following earnings.
If BTC loses US$63,500, the US$62,000–US$63,000 area could become the focus again.
Target range: US$61,500–US$63,500.
Full Agenda to Watch
Monday, August 10
Bitcoin starts the week near US$65,000 following five consecutive sessions of ETF inflows. The US Senate is only holding a pro forma session, so no CLARITY Act voting is expected on this day.
Tuesday, August 11
CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer are scheduled to report earnings after regular US trading hours. The results could influence sentiment in the AI sector and tech stocks.
Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30 PM WIB
US July CPI and Core CPI are the biggest macro catalysts this week. Cisco reports earnings after the US market closes.
Thursday, August 13 at 8:30 PM WIB
July PPI is released. Applied Materials announces Q3 results after the US market close.
Friday, August 14 at 8:30 PM WIB
July Retail Sales is the key data point for gauging the strength of US consumption.
Critical Bitcoin Levels to Watch
US$65,000–US$65,350 — Immediate resistance
Bitcoin is testing that zone early this week. The intraday high at the time of data review was around US$65,348.
US$66,000–US$66,500 — Next breakout confirmation
This area sits above the consolidation range seen throughout early August. A consistent close above it could strengthen the chances of a move toward US$68,000. Historical data shows BTC was last around US$66,077 on July 22.
US$64,000 — Key pivot
Bitcoin traded around this level several times over the past week. Maintaining US$64,000 could preserve the short-term recovery structure.
US$63,400–US$63,500 — Next support
This area is close to Bitcoin's closing prices on August 2–3 before the rally toward US$65,000.
US$62,800–US$63,000 — Follow-up support
This zone is near the closing prices on July 31 and August 1. Losing this area could shift the recovery structure to a more bearish outlook.
These levels are editorial technical estimates based on the latest price data and are not a guarantee of market direction.
Conclusion
The week of August 10–14, 2026 has a different structure than the previous week.
The labor data that served as the main catalyst last week showed a fairly sharp weakening, with July Nonfarm Payrolls falling by 23,000 jobs. Bitcoin was still able to approach US$65,000, supported by five consecutive sessions of ETF inflows totaling approximately US$865 million.
Now, attention shifts to inflation.
CPI on Wednesday is the most important event, followed by PPI on Thursday and Retail Sales on Friday. These three data points will determine whether the labor market weakness is sufficient to shift Fed policy expectations or if inflation remains too high to allow for easing.
Beyond macro factors, earnings from CoreWeave, Supermicro, Cisco, and Applied Materials could influence risk-on sentiment within the AI and technology sectors. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act is no longer an immediate catalyst this week as the Senate process has shifted to September.
Technically, $65,000–$65,350 is the first level Bitcoin needs to break through, while $64,000 and $63,500 are the key areas that must be maintained if volatility increases following the inflation data.
Disclaimer: All content in this article is for informational and predictive purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Price projections, scenarios, and probability estimates are not guarantees of future results. The crypto market is highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
