In Mobee's Asset Picks, we highlight assets based on recent market developments, price momentum, and ongoing catalysts. The focus isn't to predict which assets will rise, but to help you understand why they are currently gaining so much attention.
This edition highlights two assets: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
The reason isn't just because they are both up. What makes this edition interesting is that both are rising due to the same macro catalysts, but are being driven by very different engines. Bitcoin is being fueled by institutional inflows that just hit their highest levels in weeks. Ethereum is moving precisely while its inflows are weak, with its momentum coming from the supply side. That distinction is important, as it determines what you need to watch for each asset.
Data Summary
All figures below were captured on September 4, 2026, at 2:15 PM WIB and are point-in-time.
The last two lines are the most noteworthy, and we will discuss them one by one.
Shared Catalysts: Why Both Are Rising Together
Before diving into each asset, here is the background explaining the last 24 hours of gains. All three occurred within a short timeframe.
First, signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Reports emerged that US presidential advisors are urging the President to declare the war with Iran officially over. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell below $77,000 following new attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, so this de-escalation news is not just positive sentiment, but a direct reversal of the pressure that had been holding prices down for several days.
Second, the Fed is softening its stance. Fed Governor Christopher Waller opened the possibility of holding interest rates at the September meeting, with core inflation slowing to 3.05% in July from 4.76% in February. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of an interest rate hike has dropped to 50.2% from 63.2% the day before. A week ago, this figure even touched 70%.
Third, a short squeeze. The rally was amplified by large-scale liquidations of short positions, totaling approximately US$415 million across the crypto market, with US$164 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out in just four hours.
One counterbalancing note worth keeping in mind: the oil market has not yet bought into the peace narrative. Brent remains above US$97 per barrel, and tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still below its normal average. If peace were truly on the horizon, oil prices should be falling.
Top Asset Pick #1: Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is trading at US$80,905, up 3.71% over the last 24 hours, with a wide daily range from US$77,448 to US$82,288. That’s a 6.2% spread, so it hasn't been a quiet day.
It is important to understand the price action: BTC surged sharply last night, hitting a peak of US$82,288 in the early hours before cooling off. Today's session opened at US$81,276 and has since traded between US$80,562 and US$81,431. This means the price has given back about 1.7% from its peak, and the US$80,000 level is now the test to see if last night's breakout is confirmed.
Why BTC is in the spotlight: a sharp reversal in ETF flows
This is the most compelling figure in this edition. According to data from Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have moved as follows:
The September 3rd figure isn't just positive; it is more than seven times higher than the previous day, and a complete reversal from the US$236.5 million outflow just two days prior. Cumulatively, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now absorbed approximately US$55.51 billion since its launch.
What makes this different from a short squeeze: short position liquidations explain the speed of the rise, but they don't generate new buyers. Once the shorts are wiped out, the momentum fades. ETF inflows, on the other hand, represent genuine incoming demand. When both happen simultaneously as they did yesterday, the rally has a foundation that is more than just mechanical.
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Future potential for BTC
Two factors providing support, and one acting as a constraint.
The support. Bitcoin is still 35.8% below its all-time high of US$126,080. This means there is still significant room for recovery before discussing new price highs, and in the last 30 days, BTC has risen 25.97%, so the recovery trend is already established. Structurally, the US Treasury's bond buyback program is scheduled to increase to US$4 billion per operation starting September 9, a policy that lowers yield pressure and has historically supported risk assets.
The constraint. The 7-day gain is only 1.22%, well below the 24-hour gain of 3.71%. This means last night's rally merely reversed the weakness of the previous few days rather than establishing a new trend. Levels to watch: US$80,000 as psychological support and a breakout area, followed by US$82,288 as the nearest resistance.
Asset Choice #2: Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum is trading at US$2,513, up 4.18% in 24 hours, with a daily range of US$2,389 to US$2,529. ETH is also holding near the upper limit of its range.
What is interesting about ETH is not its 24-hour figure, but its 30-day figure: up 34.54%, compared to Bitcoin's 25.97%. The ETH/BTC ratio is at 0.031074, practically touching the peak of its 24-hour range at 0.031078. So, relatively speaking, ETH is indeed stronger than BTC.
Why ETH is in the spotlight: the driver is not ETF flows
This is where the contrast lies, and this part is usually missing from reviews that only look at price.
Spot Ethereum ETF flows are actually weak:
On September 3, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed US$730.8 million while Ethereum ETFs only saw US$2.9 million. The difference is about 252 times. The day before, Ethereum ETFs even recorded outflows.
So if ETH is outperforming BTC over 30 days while its ETF flows are much weaker, the driver is clearly not ETF flows. What is supporting ETH comes from the supply side.
Three supply figures supporting ETH
- Around 41.7 to 42 million ETH are being staked, equivalent to about 34% of the total supply, with a value of more than US$77 billion. Staked coins are not available for sale on the market in the short term.
- ETH exchange balances dropped from 7.7 million to 6.54 million between early June and mid-August. This means approximately 1.16 million ETH were withdrawn from exchanges. Coins leaving exchanges are typically not being prepared for sale.
- Weekly ETF inflows reached US$697.2 million for the week ending August 21, the highest throughout 2026, with a total of US$1.06 billion for August. Cumulatively, spot Ethereum ETFs have absorbed approximately US$13.02 billion, with about 98% concentrated in a single issuer.
The combination of these three factors reduces the amount of ETH that is truly liquid and ready for trading. When available supply shrinks, the same increase in demand results in larger price movements. That is the most plausible explanation for why ETH can move more aggressively than BTC, even though its ETF inflows are much smaller.
If you want to understand the staking mechanism and how coins can be locked, we have compiled the explanation in crypto staking.
One relatively new structural development
Since March 12, 2026, there have been Ethereum ETFs that participate in staking, following SEC guidance issued in May 2026 that separates validator yields from actively managed profit distributions.
This is significant because it changes the nature of the product. ETFs that previously only provided price exposure can now generate yields, making them relevant to fund managers who typically evaluate assets based on cash flow rather than just potential price appreciation. The network yield is around 3.2%, although issuers deduct a portion as fees.
We need to be honest about the limitations: a 3% yield will not save ETH if the price drops by 30%. This is a long-term structural demand shift, not a short-term price catalyst.
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Future potential for ETH, along with its risks
The support. ETH is still 49.2% below its all-time high of US$4,946, a much wider gap compared to Bitcoin. Returning to that record would require a gain of approximately 97%. If the supply tightening thesis holds, the percentage room for recovery is greater.
What to watch out for, and this is important. The 49.2% distance from that record works both ways. ETH's outperformance over BTC in the last 30 days is partly a recovery from a much deeper drop, rather than absolute strength. Over the past year, ETH is still -42.43% compared to BTC at -26.74%.
There is also a concentration risk worth noting. One corporate entity is recorded as holding 5,847,611 ETH as of August 24, about 4.7% of the total supply, with approximately 87% of it staked. Such a large holding in one hand has no precedent on Ethereum, and it means that a single party's decision could have a major impact on the available supply.
ETH's 7-day gain is also only 0.41%, practically flat. Just like BTC, this 24-hour rally has only reversed the weakness of the previous few days.
Two Assets, Same Catalyst, Different Engines
This is the analytical conclusion of this edition, and in our view, the most useful one to keep in mind:
The practical consequence: you should not monitor both with the same indicators. For Bitcoin, daily ETF flows are the most direct signal. For Ethereum, ETF flows are actually misleading if read in isolation, because the numbers are small while the price moves sharply. What is more relevant for ETH is whether its liquid supply continues to shrink.
Scheduled Agenda
This section keeps this page relevant for the next few days, as the dates are fixed.
- September 4, 19:30 WIB. August Nonfarm Payrolls data. The consensus is for an addition of approximately 53,000 to 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. The range of economist estimates is very wide, from a loss of 25,000 to an addition of 125,000, so the potential for a surprise is high. Keep in mind that the logic is currently inverted: because the Fed is considering an interest rate hike, strong data tends to be read as bad news for risk assets.
- September 9. The US bond repurchase program has been increased to US$4 billion per operation. This is a concrete signal of liquidity and is generally supportive of risk assets.
- September 11. August inflation data. According to several analysts, this is more decisive for the Fed's decision than labor data.
- September 15 to 16. FOMC meeting. The probability of an interest rate hike is currently 50.2%, meaning the market is truly split down the middle.
What to Watch Out For
- A 24-hour rally does not yet constitute a trend. The 7-day gain for BTC is only 1.22% and for ETH 0.41%. Both have only just recovered from the weakness of the previous few days.
- The geopolitical trigger is still based on reports, not official decisions. If the news is denied, the direction could reverse quickly.
- A short squeeze does not generate new buyers. Once short positions are wiped out, the price needs a new reason to continue rising.
- ETF flows can reverse in a single day. Just look at the BTC pattern: an outflow of US$236.5 million on September 1, followed by an inflow of US$730.8 million on September 3. A few days of positive flows do not guarantee a trend.
- Tonight's data could reverse the direction in a matter of minutes.
For a market moving with this much volatility and such a wide range, the Spot Grid feature allows for automatic buy and sell orders within a price range you set yourself, so the results do not depend entirely on perfect entry timing. For assets you want to hold for the long term, Flexi Earn is worth considering. Before you start, it is a good idea to read some basic crypto trading tips , understand the asset valuation framework in how to analyze crypto, and learn how to properly store your assets.
Conclusion
Mobee's Asset Picks for September 4, 2026, highlight Bitcoin at US$80,905 and Ethereum at US$2,513, both of which rose following a sharp rebound in the last 24 hours triggered by signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, a softening stance from the Fed, and a major short squeeze.
What sets them apart is their driving force. Bitcoin is supported by institutional fund inflows that just hit US$730.8 million in a single day, the largest in recent weeks. Ethereum is supported by a tightening of liquid supply, with approximately 34% of its supply locked in staking and 1.16 million coins withdrawn from exchanges over the past three months, even though its ETF inflows are currently weak.
Both are still far from their all-time highs—Bitcoin by 35.8% and Ethereum by 49.2%—which means there is significant room for recovery, but it also highlights how deep the previous correction was.
Four scheduled events over the next two weeks will determine whether this rebound continues, starting with tonight's U.S. labor data.
Mobee's Top Picks may change as market conditions evolve. For this reason, this page is continuously updated with the latest assets, data, and catalysts without changing the main URL.
Disclaimer. Mobee's Top Picks are compiled for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or predictions that any specific asset will increase in value. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Each asset has unique characteristics, volatility, structures, and risks. All price data is point-in-time as of the stated time and can change rapidly, even within minutes. Always study asset information and conduct your own research before making any decisions.
